The Avoidable War: Kevin Rudd on the Dangers of Conflict Between the United States and Xi Jinping’s China
A book that explains in detail the relationship between China and the United States today. Written by a former Australian prime minister who speaks Mandarin, The Avoidable War gets its title from its central argument: the relationship must be managed and improved in the coming years, or it may deteriorate into open conflict.
Author: Kevin Rudd (born 1957), former Prime Minister of Australia
Title: The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China (2022)
Format: English hardcover (PublicAffairs), 432 pages
Scope: Geopolitics and international relations
Amazon: www.amazon.es/dp/1541701291 (ASIN 1541701291)
History and Suspicion
The book looks at the situation after the Second World War, the enmity between Japan and China and, in the reviewer’s reading, an anti-Asian sentiment in the United States that has not changed as much as one might think, and that spread further after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Xi Jinping’s China
Xi Jinping’s Leninist communist system remains strict and closed to international scrutiny. New technologies have increased control over the population; apps such as TikTok and WeChat have been banned or restricted by some cautious countries. Facial recognition and digital payments mean every transaction is recorded. Opponents of the regime are treated as traitors, and Chinese patriotism remains strong.
A Rival Superpower
Updated to 2022, when it was published, the book is written so that Americans themselves can understand the challenge posed by China and its fierce competitiveness. China’s military is increasingly comparable to that of the United States, and its technological progress in recent years is a serious challenge to American economic and military supremacy. The space race goes on, and some believe the United States is already in decline and that China will soon take over.
A Unique Vantage Point
Kevin Rudd studied Chinese language and history at the Australian National University, served as a diplomat in Beijing in the 1980s and went on to become Prime Minister of Australia, from 2007 to 2010 and again briefly in 2013. He later led the Asia Society in New York, completed a doctorate at Oxford on Xi Jinping’s political worldview, and in 2023 became Australia’s ambassador to the United States. Few people have spent so long talking to the leaders of both countries.
Beyond the Thucydides Trap
The book enters a debate shaped by the political scientist Graham Allison, who warned in Destined for War that a rising power and an established one have often ended up fighting, a pattern he called the Thucydides Trap. Rudd accepts the danger but rejects the idea that war is inevitable. He sets out what he sees as Xi’s priorities, from staying in power and unifying Taiwan with the mainland to building China’s economic and military strength, and he sketches a series of scenarios for the coming decade, from managed rivalry to catastrophe.
Managed Strategic Competition
His proposed answer is a framework in which both sides accept that they are competitors, agree on clear red lines, keep channels of communication open and cooperate where their interests overlap, on issues such as climate change and pandemics. It is a realistic rather than idealistic argument, and readers on both sides of the debate will find it a useful reference. His later book On Xi Jinping (2024) develops the analysis of Chinese ideology in more detail.
Read together, the two books form a coherent whole.
His argument deserves a wide readership.
Why Read It
Rudd writes as a practitioner, not just an observer, and his book offers a clear framework, which he calls "managed strategic competition", for keeping rivalry from becoming war. Essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the most important relationship of the twenty-first century.
As an Amazon Associate, this site earns from qualifying purchases.
Part of the reading recommendations featured on books.sapiensverbum.com.
